Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 06 - 12.111.2017, Forecast on 13 - 20.11.2017, Carrington Rotation 2197 (03,61.12.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (4.3 - 3,6) deg. (S30 - N28 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVELS. SINCE NO- VEMBER 1 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS -80 SPOTLESS DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W=000+0/-0 (Wn= 000+0/-0). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK NO SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS. WITH HIGH PROBABILITY THE VISIBLE DISK OF SUN WILL BE SPOTLESS T0 16.11, WHEN FROM E-LIMB WILL APPEARANCE NEXT ACTIVE REGION (AR12685 ON LAST ROTATION). MOST LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SINGLE EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT WAS OBSERVED 10.09 ON NE-QUADRANT OF THE VISIB- LE SOLAR DISK WHICH WAS FOLLOWED BY EXTENSIVE SHORT-LIVED TRANSI- ENT CORONAL HOLES (DIMINGS) ON BOTH SIDES OF THE NEUTRAL MAGNETIC LINE, AND CORONAL MASS EJECTION WITH THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF 10/ 0824 UT. ACCORDING TO DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS SE- VEN CME HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 10.11 <0824 NE-Ë×ÁÄÒÁÎÔ ? óíå/0824 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N50L342 N40L327 N20L005 N22L152 43000 06.11 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH* + N05L015 N00L000 S15L015 S02L020 08.11 1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N55L258 N52L276 N30L266 N50L248 111600 14.11 2 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N30L263 N27L266 N10L270 N15L240 7400 13.11 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH - S01L290 S30L303 S52L293 S15L282 17.11 6 G0 SDO, SOHO... * CH was formed 4.11 in the center of a visible disk; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 7.11/03 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 27.11. NOVEMBER 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 NOVEMBER Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 069 068 068 066 069 072 069 èbcg á3.7 á3.4 A3.6 A3.9 A3.9 A5.0 A5.4 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF - -/+ + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 4.8E+7 4.7å+7 4.5å+7 1.8å+6 9.6E+8 GOES Ie>2 2066 20291 17453 25349 pfu Ap 1 39 50 21 23 7 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 1 52 47 16 21 7 7 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GIN 8.11/1100 UT AND 8-12.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 13-16.11. SINCE AUGUST 17 ALREADY THE 4 SOLAR ROTATIONS THE EARTH IS UNDER GEO- EFFECTIVE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CORONAL HOLES FROM FAMILY OF NORTHERN POLAR CH CARRIED BY ~180 deg. AND TWO TIMES NEAR 2 AND 15 DAYS OF EACH ROTATION, IN ENVIRONMENT SPACE THE LONG (~ 3 days) MAGNETIC STORMS, US- UALLY MINOR NOTED, BUT IF THERE ARE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES THEN MODERATE (MAJOR). THE SITUATION OF JULY-NOVEMBER, 2016 REPEATS ONLY IN MORE EXP- RESSED FORM. MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 49, dur. = 48 h). ACCOR- DING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER, BUT ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA - TWO MAGNETIC STORMS: MODERATE (G2, Ams= 48, dur.= 15 h) AND MAJOR (G2, Ams= 72, dur.=12 h), are REGISTERED by 7- 9.11. SECOND, MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=30, dur.=27 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER 9-10.09, BUT ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA HAVE BEEN REGISTERED SMALL SUBSTORM. IN OTHER DAYS (6, 11 And 12.11) GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSET- TLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov