Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.11.2017, Forecast on 20 - 27.11.2017, Carrington Rotation 2197 (03,61.12.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (3.6 - 3.0) deg. (S30 - N28 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS, THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS ON 13 AND 19.11 (82 SPOTLESS DAYS IN CUR- RENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W= 007+9/-7 (Wn= 011+14/-11). ON THE VISIBLE SO- LAR DISK TWO SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT WAS OBSERVED. ACCORDING TO DATA FROM SOHO AND STE- REO CORONOGRAPHS FOUR CME HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 15.11 >1131 >0811 N53E48L296 36 16.11 >0949 >0335 S24E69L284 12 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N30L263 N27L266 N10L270 N15L240 7400 13.11 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N55L258 N52L276 N30L266 N50L248 111600 14.11 2 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH - S01L290 S30L303 S52L293 S15L282 6300 17.11 6 G0 SDO, SOHO... CH + N25L202 N21L214 S02L212 N18L185 28100 20.11 6 G1 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 7.11/03 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 27.11. NOVEMBER 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 NOVEMBER Wus 000 014 014 015 026 014 000 F10.7 072 074 074 073 076 076 074 èbcg á6.9 á6.7 A6.5 A5.9 A6.3 A6.0 A5.7 GOES Sp 000 050 090 090 070 030 000 msh N 1 1 IMF +/~ + + +/~ +/~ + ~ DSCOVR Å>2 1.0E+9 2.3E+8 1.1E+8 3.5å+7 8.7å+7 8.3å+7 4.9E+7 GOES Ie>2 20582 12790 7864 886 2332 2355 1480 pfu Ap 6 12 15 14 6 6 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 12 10 14 4 6 4 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GIN 8.11/1100 UT AND 13 -15.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT INCREASE THE FLUX WAS BEGAN 17.11 AND 17 - 19.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 20-28.11. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK AT 20.09 THE EARTH WILL ENTER IN HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF TRANS- EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND 20 - 22.11 WILL BE ACTIVE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM (G1) IS 60 %. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov