Dear users, I congratulate with NEW 2018 YEAR! I wish you and your relatives of health, good luck and it is a lot of pleasant minutes in new year. The current 24th solar cycle continues the slow falling to a minimum point, which, most likely, will come in the second half of 2020. Yours faithfully, V.N. Ishkov ------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2017 HAS MADE Wdec. = 4.6 7.4(n) preliminary data, no data from http://www.sidc.be/products/ri/ THAT GIVES FOR 101 MONTHS (2017, JUNE) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*june = no data from http://www.sidc.be/products/ri/ W*ÍÁy = 14.0; 23.1 - new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2017, DECEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 74 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0m 6.. 0m 11.. 0m 16.. 16 21.. 0m 26.. 17M 2.. 0m 7.. 0m 12.. 0m 17.. 25 22.. 0m 27.. 16 3.. 0m 8.. 0m 13.. 0m 18.. 15 23.. 0m 28.. 15 4.. 0m 9.. 0m 14.. 13 19.. 0m 24.. 0m 29.. 13 5.. 0m 10.. 0m 15.. 15 20.. 0m 25.. 15 30.. 11 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2017, DECEMBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2017, JUNE F10.7dec. = 71.5 F*10.7june = 77.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2017, DECEMBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JUNE Ap dec. = 8.0 Ap*june = 11.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 25 - 31.12.2017, Forecast on 01 - 08.01.2018, Carrington Rotation 2198, 2199 (03,61.12; 30,94.12.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (0.6 - 0.1) deg. (S30 - N30 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL, AND AFTER 27.12 THE SUN IS SPOTLESS (104 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W= 004+6/-4 (Wn= 006+10/-6). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK ONE SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WITH HIGH PROBABILITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELA- TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+15/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 1 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND, ACCORDING TO DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >3 CME HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 26.12 >1352 >0725 S11W69L347 11 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S15L065 S40L103 S60L083 S16L263 39200 26.12 8 SDO, SOHO... CH - N45L017 N40L042 N20L007 N28L002 22400 01.01 6 G1 SDO, SOHO... Last CH - from south polar CH family. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 19.12/2300 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 31.12. DECEMBER 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 DECEMBER Wus 017 014 011 000 000 000 000 F10.7 076 072 071 071 072 070 071 èbcg á5.4 á5.0 A4.8 A4.5 A4.4 A4.0 A3.8 GOES Sp 100 030 010 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 5.1E+6 1.8E+7 5.1E+7 3.3å+7 4.0å+7 3.0å+7 2.6E+7 GOES Ie>2 237 704 1810 1545 1092 965 839 pfu Ap 9 11 7 5 3 3 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 11 12 11 5 5 4 12 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GUN 27/1545 UT AND 27-29.12 WERE OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 2 - 8.01. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEEK ON JANUARY 1 AND 2 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED BY ACTIVE BECAUSE OF THE EARTH's PASSING OF THE RECURRENT HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM THE CORONAL HOLE OF THE NORTHERN HEMI- SPHERE (THE FAMILY OF POLAR CORONAL HOLE) . PROBABILITY OF THE MAG- NETIC STORM NEAR 80%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EX- PECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov