Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01- 07.01.2018, Forecast on 08 - 15.01.2018, Carrington Rotation 2199 (30,94.12.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (0.6 - 0.1) deg. (S30 - N30 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. SUNSPOTS WAS OBSERVED AT 4 - 7.01 AND THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS IN OTHER DAYS (104 SPOTLESS DAYS IN 2017, AND 4 - IN 2018). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W= 004+4/-4 (Wn= 007+6 /-6). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK ONE SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WITH HIGH PROBABILITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL AND AT MOST OF DAYS SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATION- AL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL.NO EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND CORONAL MASS EJECTION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N45L017 N40L042 N20L007 N28L002 22400 01.01 6 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH - N55L308 N40L329 N18L287 N25L286 37800 07.01 4 SDO, SOHO... CH - S03L241 S10L246 S12L243 S05L239 <2000 10.01 8 SDO, SOHO... óH + N28L261 N05L281 N02L271 N22L251 12.01 8 G1 SDO, SOHO... Last CH - from south polar CH family. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 02.12/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 15.01. DECEMBER 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 DECEMBER Wus 000 000 000 013 011 011 011 F10.7 069 070 071 070 069 069 070 èbcg á3.5 á3.2 A3.1 A3.1 A2.8 A2.7 A2.7 GOES Sp 000 000 000 020 010 010 010 msh N 1 IMF + + + + + ~ ~ DSCOVR Å>2 1.6E+6 2.3E+6 2.0E+6 1.6å+6 2.0å+6 1.5å+6 1.6E+6 GOES Ie>2 639 pfu Ap 3 10 5 3 2 2 2 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 12 6 3 3 4 2 3 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 14.01. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEEK ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED 12-13.01 BECAUSE OF THE EARTH's PASSING OF THE RECURRENT HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SO- LAR WIND FROM THE CORONAL HOLE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE (THE FAMI- LY OF POLAR CORONAL HOLE). PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 20%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov