------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2018 HAS MADE Wjan. = 4.0 6.7(n) THAT GIVES FOR 102 MONTHS (2017, JULY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*july = 12.6; 21.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*june = 13.4 22.3 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - X 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2018, JANUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 71 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0m 6.. 11 11.. 12 16.. 16 21.. 0m 26.. 0m 31.. 12 2.. 0m 7.. 11 12.. 0m 17.. 15 22.. 0m 27.. 0m 3.. 0m 8.. 13 13.. 0m 18.. 12 23.. 0m 28.. 0m 4.. 12 9.. 16 14.. 11 19.. 11 24.. 0m 29.. 0m 5.. 11 10.. 22M 15.. 12 20.. 0m 25.. 0m 30.. 11 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON JANUARY 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2017, JULY F10.7jan. = 69.9 F*10.7july = 76.8 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JANUARY 2018 AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JULY Ap jan. = 5.1 Ap*july = 11.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 29.01- 04.02.2018, Forecast on 05 - 12.01.2018, Carrington Rotation 2200 (27,28.01.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.6 - -6.2) deg. (S30 - N24 is geoeffectiveness zone) (for my carelessness in the line "Earth out of ecliptic", incor- rect data has been published in recent months. In January, the Earth was projected onto the visible disk of the Sun in the interval from -3.0 to -5.9 degrees. I apologize...) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL AND THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 29.01, 1 AND 3.02 (18 DAYS-IN 2018). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W=004+5/-4 (Wn = 006+8/-6). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 3 SMALL, SHORT-LIVED QUI- ET SUNSPOT GROUPS, ALL IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HAVE BEEN OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT4.09 AND VERY LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND CORONAL MASS EJEC- TIONS WERE NOT OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óî + N60L294 N40L314 N20L299 N30L289 96100 3.02 5 SOHO, SDO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER C 29.01/0610 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE AND FREQUENTLY CHANGING. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH MUST PASS 10-11.02. JANUARY 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 JANUARY Wus 000 015 013 000 011 000 011 F10.7 068 069 069 069 069 069 073 èbcg á2.0 á2.1 A2.1 A2.3 A2.4 A3.4 A3.7 GOES Sp 000 010 000 000 010 000 080 msh N 1 1 IMF +/- -/~ -/~ - - ~ ~/+ DSCOVR Å>2 3.2E+6 1.4E+6 9.0E+5 1.1å+6 1.8å+6 1.9å+6 1.1E+6 GOES Ie>2 204 pfu Ap 4 5 6 3 4 3 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 3 7 6 6 3 5 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov