Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05- 10.02.2018, Forecast on 11 - 19.01.2018, Carrington Rotation 2200 (27,28.01.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.3 - -6.8) deg. (S33 - N23 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W = 011+10/-8 (Wn = 018+15/-6). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 1 SMALL, RELATIVELY ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT 6-7 AND 10.09 AND VERY LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. TWO EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENTS REGISTE- RED ON PERIOD. THE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE NOT OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 05.02 >0000 >0025 S01W44L118 5 06.02 >0016 >1423 S33W12L203 16 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óî - S00L170 S03L175 S10L151 S05L143 11.02 1 SOHO, SDO... óî - N20L189 N12L204 N10L189 S05L163 15.02 4 SOHO, SDO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 02.02/0230 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD, BUT 8-10.02 THE SIGN OF SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE AND FREQUENTLY CHANGING. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH MUST PASS 16.02. FEBRUARY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FEBRUARY Wus 013 017 020 022 023 035 èèè F10.7 074 077 077 078 078 078 èèè èbcg á9.5 á6.6 A6.1 A6.1 A5.5 A6.4 èèèè GOES Sp 130 160 200 200 210 240 èèè msh N IMF + + + +/- -/+ +/- - DSCOVR Å>2 3.2E+6 1.4E+6 9.0E+5 1.1å+6 1.8å+6 1.9å+6 èèèèè GOES Ie>2 204 pfu Ap 4 5 6 3 4 5 è nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 3 7 6 6 6 è nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. BUT 15 - 16.02 POSSIBLE INCREASE OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE DUE TO EARTH's PASSING OF HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE NOTHERN HEMI- SPHERE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM ON THESE DAYS IS NOT MORE THAN 10% - ON THE PAST ROTATION THIS STREAM ON MID-LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS NOT OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov