------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2018 HAS MADE Wapr. = 5.3 8.9(n) THAT GIVES FOR 105 MONTHS (2017, OCTOBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*oct. = 10.0; 16.7 - in new system W*sep. = 10.9 18.3 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - X 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2018, APRIL ACCORDING DATA OF 71 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 11 6.. 0m 11.. 0m 16.. 12 21.. 28í 26.. 14 2.. 0m 7.. 0m 12.. 13 17.. 11 22.. 22 27.. 14 3.. 0m 8.. 0m 13.. 16 18.. 0m 23.. 23 28.. 0m 4.. 0m 9.. 0m 14.. 11 19.. 12 24.. 22 29.. 0m 5.. 0m 10.. 12 15.. 13 20.. 16 25.. 18 30.. 0m THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON FEBRUARY 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2017, OCTOBER F10.7apr. = 70.0 F*10.7oct.= 75.1 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON FEBRUARY 2018 AND SMOOTHES ON 2017, OCTOBER Ap apr. = 6.7 Ap*oct. = 9.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 30.04 - 06.05.2018, Forecast on 07 - 14.05.2018, Carrington Rotation 2003 (19,22.04.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.1 - -1.7) deg. (S28 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL, THE VISIBLE DISK WAS SPOTLESS TO 04.05 (73d ON 2018). THE ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W = 003+5/-3 (Wn = 006+7/-6). ON THE VISIBLE DISK ONE SMALL, QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAS BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=015+15/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER 3.05 ON THE SOLAR BACK SIDE THE LARGE PROTON FLARE IN AR12706, WHICH 30.04 LEFT OF VISIBLE DISC WAS OBSERVED. NO SO- LAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND THREE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE (30.04 AND 3.05), ONE OF THEM FROM THE LARGE FLARE BY MADE MENTION WAS TYPE II (angular width from 90 to 180 degl.)HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 03.05 ~1615 AR12706 CME/1700 http://www.lmsal.com/~freeland/secchi_a/secchi_ahead_backside_nearhalo_20180503.html DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 06.05 2114 2150 N15E70L192 10 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N10L129 N05L149 S20L150 S03L126 17600 5-6.05 7 G0 SDO,SOHO... CH - N15L159 N05L177 S10L161 N10L149 8700 6-7.05 7 G1 SDO,SOHO... CH - S00L252 S02L255 S10L242 S06L236 5100 7-8.05 7 G0 SDO,SOHO... These CH possible are one coronal hole; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 05.05/1318 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 24.05. APRIL 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 MAY Wus 000 000 000 000 013 014 014 F10.7 070 068 067 067 068 068 067 èbcg á2.5 á2.2 á1.7 á1.3 á1.5 á1.7 á2.2 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 030 010 010 msh N IMF + + + + + +/- - DSCOVR Å>2 4.0E+7 3.3E+7 2.6E+7 2.7å+7 2.6å+7 7.4å+6 2.0å+8 GOES Ie>2 1215 775 727 621 643 594 8170 pfu Ap 6 2 3 4 3 20 31 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 4 6 6 6 22 24 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BEGAN AT 6.05/1400 UT. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 7 -14.05. MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=40, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, Ams=46, dur.= 15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA IT IS REGISTERED ON MAY 5 - 6 AS A RESULT OF SUMMA- RY INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CO- RONAL HOLES AND ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SECTOR BOUNDARY. BY THE END OF DAYS ON 6.05 ONE MORE MAGNETIC STORM PERHAPS BEGAN. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSET- TLED AND QUITE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION SHOULD BE ACTIVE AT 7-8.05. THE PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM IS LESS THAN 10%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUITE AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov