Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 07 - 13.05.2018, Forecast on 14 - 21.05.2018, Carrington Rotation 2003, 2004 (19,22.04.; 16,45.05.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-1.7 - -1.5) deg. (S28 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W= 009+6/-2 (Wn= 014+10/-3). ON THE VISIBLE DISK TWO SMALL, QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAS BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+15/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. 5 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 5 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 07.05 >0916 >2336 N14E44L153 7 10.05 >0923 >2329 N08W42L028 8 10.05 >1650 >0646 N43W01L069 11 11.05 >0104 >1231 N18W01L055 6 11.05 >1639 >0439 S53E43L099 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S00L252 S02L255 S10L242 S06L236 5100 7-8.05 7 G0 SDO,SOHO... CH - S05L025 S05L040 S13L035 S06L018 16.05 5 SDO,SOHO... CH - S010L042 S25L060 S40L050 S15L018 18.05 5 G0 SDO,SOHO... The last two CH possible are one coronal hole; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 05.05/1318 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 24.05. APRIL 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 MAY Wus 014 025 022 011 011 012 011 F10.7 070 070 070 070 070 070 071 èbcg á2.6 á2.4 á2.7 á2.9 á2.2 á2.0 á1.9 GOES Sp 010 020 020 010 010 010 010 msh N IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 7.3E+8 7.1E+8 1.6E+9 2.3å+9 1.3å+9 4.2å+8 3.6å+8 GOES Ie>2 24933 26734 56756 74279 71659 29616 13623 pfu Ap 16 18 16 12 18 10 7 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 15 14 12 11 14 8 9 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BEGAN AT 6.05/1400 UT AND WAS OBSERVED AT 06 - 13.05. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 14 - 21.05. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 32, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA IT IS REGISTERED ON MAY 6 - 7.05. A RESULT OF INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE LAST PART OF TRANS- EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA AT THIS TI- ME SHORT DURATION SUBSTORM HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ONLY. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION SHOULD BE ACTIVE AT 17-18.05. THE PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM IS LESS THAN 10%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUITE AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov