Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 14 - 20.05.2018, Forecast on 21 - 28.05.2018, Carrington Rotation 2003, 2004 (19,22.04.; 16,45.05.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-1.5 - -1.0) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (80 DAYS IN 2018). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERI- OD W = 000 (Wn = 000). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW AND WITH LARGE PROBABILITY THE SUN WILL SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 2 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 14.05 >1504 >0446 S47W09L007 9 17.05 1526 1556 S55W55L279 18 20.05 >1711 >0440 S39E32L326 9 20.05 >1711 >0440 N23E18L312 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S05L025 S05L040 S13L035 S06L018 16.05 5 SDO,SOHO... CH - S010L042 S25L060 S40L050 S15L018 18.05 5 G0 SDO,SOHO... CH + N55L320 N40L340 N15L325 N12L302 21500 20.05 1 SDO,SOHO... CH + S12L302 S15L308 S25L299 S12L294 22.05 1 G0 SDO,SOHO... The last CH has been appeared on solar disk at 18.05. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 05.05/1318 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 24.05. MAY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 MAY Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 070 070 070 069 069 070 069 èbcg á1.8 á1.5 á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 5.7E+8 7.6E+8 5.0E+8 1.3å+8 2.5å+7 2.4å+7 2.8å+7 GOES Ie>2 16341 21333 15663 12809 630 636 626 pfu Ap 5 4 4 10 4 3 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 5 5 12 6 5 4 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BEGAN AT 6.05/1400 UT AND WAS OBSERVED AT 06 - 17.05. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETT- LED. THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARELY QUITE, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE (21 -22 MAY) DUE TO EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE SOLAR WIND. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov