Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 08.07.2018, Forecast on 09 - 16.07.2018, Carrington Rotation 2005, 2006 (12,7.06; 09,9.07.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - +0.2) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON THE VERI LOW LEVEL: THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (99 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 000 (Wn= 000). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 3 EJECTA OF SO- LAR FILAMENT AND 2 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------ FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 04.07 >1604 >0506 N21E22L092 14 04.07 >2246 >1653 N14E10L080 12 05.07 >1555 >0502 N29W02L054 12 07.09 >1650 >0455 N34W40L350 5 08.07 >0929 >2340 S29W29L348 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 07.07/0520 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 14.07. JULY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 JULY Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 067 068 068 068 071 072 072 èbcg á1.5 á1.4 á1.0 á0.0 á1.8 A3.7 á3.7 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF - - - -/+ +/~ +/- - DSCOVR Å>2 2.3E+8 2.0E+8 6.2å+7 1.8E+7 5.8å+6 9.2å+6 1.3E+7 GOES Ie>2 4597 4443 3066 1221 183 305 pfu Ap 3 3 4 17 7 5 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 4 5 18 10 5 5 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGIN- NING AT 24/1800 UT AND HAVE OBSERVED 24.06 - 5.07. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE 5.07 THE CENTER IN BOULDER OB- SERVED INTENSIVE (G1) 9 HOURS SUBSTORM. ACCORDING THE IZMIRAN DATA - IT WAS THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 27, dur.= 15 h). IT IS REACTION OF THE MAGNETOSPHERE TO PASSING OF SECTOR BOUNDARY OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED. THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY QUITE AND UNSETTLED LEVELS BUT 09.07 POSSIBLE ACTIVE LEVEL DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM THE AFORMENTIONED FILAMENTS ACTIVITY FROM 4-5 JULY. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov