Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 16 - 22.07.2018, Forecast on 23 - 30.07.2018, Carrington Rotation 2006 (09,9.07.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - +0.2) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL: EXEPT 21.07 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (111 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 001+0-1 (Wn= 001+0-1). THERE IS ONE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 3 EJECTIONS SO- LAR FILAMENT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON THE PRRIOD. ------------------------------------------------------------------ FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 16.07 0712 0842 N19E51L319 8 18.07 >0149 >1250 N34E41L282 5 21.01 0030 0215 N29E42L241 17 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N10L199 S25L249 S35L194 S05L181 23.07 R4 G1 SDO, ACE... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 22.07/1340 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 1.08. JULY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 JULY Wus 000 000 000 000 000 011 000 F10.7 072 071 071 071 071 070 068 èbcg á2.8 á2.5 á2.4 á2.4 á2.1 A2.2 á1.7 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 010 000 msh N IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.0E+6 2.0E+5 2.4å+5 3.4E+5 4.8å+5 1.5å+6 5.3E+6 GOES Ie>2 153 pfu Ap 11 8 3 3 7 11 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 10 7 5 5 6 17 5 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 24-30.07. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED. THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY QUITE AND UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONDITIONS 24.07. DUE TO EFFECTS OF HIGH-SPEED STREAM PASS FROM TRANC-EQUATORIAL CO- RONAL HOLE. POSSIBILILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM NEAR 10%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov