Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 20 - 26.08.2018,
                  Forecast on 27.08 - 3.09.2018,
            Carrington Rotation 2207 (06,1.08.2018) 
            Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - +0.2) deg. 
            (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE CHANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 
TO THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF
THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PE-
RIOD W=013+6/-6 (Wn= 020+10/-9). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK TWO SMALL 
SUNSPOT GROUP,  LOCALIZED  ALMOST SYMMETRICAL  IN SOUTHERN (S06) AND 
NORTHERN (N08) HEMISPHERE THE SAME LONGITUDE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT THE MIDDLE BEFO-
RE LEAVING THE VISIBLE DISK OF THESE SUNSPOT GROUPS (28.09), FOLLOWED 
- AT A VERY LOW.  LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 030+
10/-30. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO FILAMENT EJECTION AND
1 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. AT APPROXIMATELY 20/22 h A
FAINT AND SLOW-MOVING CME WAS SEEN IN LASCO CORONOGRAPH IMAGERY IN SOUT-
HERN SECTOR OF SOLAR LIMB  UNEXPECTEDLY  CALLED IN EARTH SPACE ENVIRONE-
MENT MAGNETIC STORM OF HIGH INTENSIVITY (G3). THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES OF 
THIS EVENT - THE LONG-LIVED SOLAR FLARE OF CLASS A3.6.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/Ïp   J/m-2
20.08 1436 1715  1620	S07E35L133   á3.6/           12719       óíå/22h                            
DSF     to      te  localization   l × ÇÒÁÄ.  Fl    AR    CME/to
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  -  N12L183 N00L191  S07L185 N05L183       20.08  R1     SDO, ACE...
CH  -  S03L208 S20L223  S22L218 S18L203       22.08  R1     SDO, ACE...
Last two CH may be the parts of one.
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 22.08/1130 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 6.09.
------------------------------------------------------------------
AUGUST   20     21     22     23     24     25     26   AUGUST
Wus     015    015    012    015    029    031    026 
F10.7   068    068    067    070    072    072    071
èbcg   á1.0   á1.3  <á1.0  <á1.0  <á1.0   á1.9   á1.2  GOES
Sp      010    010    010    010    040    060    070  msh   
N                                   1    
IMF      -      -      +      +      +      +      +   DSCOVR   
Å>2  7.1E+7 3.5E+8 1.9å+8 1.7E+8 1.1å+8 3.1å+7 1.2E+8  GOES
Ie>2  14785   9296  10332   4038   3701   1929   5893 pfu 
Ap       15     7      6      4      5      9     75  nô  
Dst                                                   nô KIOTO
Amsc     16     6      5      4      5      12    51  nô IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT
18.08/1410 AND 18-26.08 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 27-30.08.

STRONG MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=85, dur =24 h) ACCORDING DATA OF THE 
CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G2, Ams=59, dur=27 h) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA 
MARKED WITH THE END OF THE DAY 25.09 AFTER COMING ANOMALOUSLY GEOEF-
FECTIVENESS CME FROM MIDGET, BUT THE LONGLIVED FLARE  20.09 WITHOUT 
SIGNIFICANT HIGH-SPEED STREAM (CH).  THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  WAS 
ACTIVE 20 AND 26.08 AND QUITE AND UNSETTLED IN OTHER DAYS.
 
THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AND 
UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov