Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 03 - 09.09.2018, Forecast on 10 - 17.09.2018, Carrington Rotation 2208 (02,3.09.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (+7.24 - +7.24) deg. (S18 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY LOW (SPOTLESS -141 DAYS IN THIS YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO- NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 002+8/-2 (Wn= 004+11-4). IN THE NOR- THERN HEMISPHERE OF A VISIBLE SOLAR DISK (W15) 8.09 A SMALL COMPACT SUNSPOT GROUP WITH FAST DEVELOPMENT HAVE BEEN APPEARED, FLOCCULUS REVEALS 7.09. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW. LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. FIVE SOLAR FILAMENTS AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 05.09 >2254 >2004 S23E43L350 12 06.09 >0950 >2258 S50E25L319 7 06.09 >0950 >2258 N20E02L296 7 07.09 >0953 >1314 N47W66L215 20 09.09 0500 0815 SW-ÌÉÍÂ ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N18L354 S15L252 S18L239 N05L228 4.3% 12.08 R4 SDO, ACE... CH - N30L244 N20L259 N15L234 N18L232 1.4% 11.08 R1 SDO, ACE... CH - Pn N40L294 N32L259 N40L244 7.9% 12.08 R3 SDO, ACE... The first two CH 8.09 formed from one enormous CH, which are separated by the new AR. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 07.09/0230 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR IS UNSTABLE. NEXT SECTOR BOUN- DARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 10.09. ------------------------------------------------------------------ SEPTEMBER 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 SEPTEMBER Wus 000 000 000 000 000 016 012 F10.7 068 068 068 067 068 069 068 èbcg á1.2 á1.5 á1.2 á1.2 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 010 010 msh N 1 IMF + + + + +/- -/~ -/~ DSCOVR Å>2 4.4E+8 1.1E+8 2.5å+7 5.1E+7 1.1å+8 1.0å+8 3.5E+7 GOES Ie>2 16537 12215 2506 1298 12215 1086 898 pfu Ap 3 9 11 6 5 5 7 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 8 11 5 5 6 9 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 18.08/1410 AND 18.08 - 08.009 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 13-17.09. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED IN ALL DAYS. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNET- IC CONDITION, HOWEVER 12-13.09 THE DISTURBANCE RISE IS POSSIBLE 12 - 13.09 WHEN THE EARTH ENTERED IN THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CH WITH GEO-EFFECTIVE PARAMETERS. PRO- BABILITY MAGNETIC STORM DO NOT MORE THAN 10% HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov