Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 10 - 16.09.2018, Forecast on 17 - 24.09.2018, Carrington Rotation 2208 (02,3.09.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (+7.24 - +7.18) deg. (S18 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY LOW (SPOTLESS -146 DAYS IN THIS YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO- NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 002+6/-2 (Wn= 004+9/-4). IN THE SOU- THERN HEMISPHERE OF A VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 11-12.09 A SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW. LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENTS AND TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N18L354 S15L252 S18L239 N05L228 4.3% 12.09 R4 SDO, ACE... CH - N30L244 N20L259 N15L234 N18L232 1.4% 11.09 R1 SDO, ACE... CH - Pn N40L294 N32L259 N40L244 7.9% 12.09 R3 SDO, ACE... CH - N18L207 S25L244 S35L205 N15L194 8.1% 17.09 R2 SDO, ACE... CH - N50L109 N40L104 N30L141 N35L137 0.1% 29.09 R1 SDO, ACE... The first two CH 8.09 formed from one enormous CH, which are separated by the new AR. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 09.09/0630 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR IS UNSTABLE. NEXT SECTOR BOUN- DARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 17.09. ------------------------------------------------------------------ SEPTEMBER 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 SEPTEMBER Wus 000 014 011 000 000 000 000 F10.7 069 069 070 070 069 069 069 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 010 000 000 000 000 000 msh N 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.2E+7 9.4E+6 4.7å+7 1.5E+8 9.8å+8 1.2å+9 1.5E+9 GOES Ie>2 861 366 1914 4190 4290 39830 31051 pfu Ap 29 39 9 17 18 8 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 22 25 11 16 15 10 6 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 12.09/1410 AND 12 - 16.09 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 17-24.09. MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 53, dur.= 24 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF BOULDER AND MINOR (G1, Ams=34, dur.=30 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA HAVE BEEN ODSERVED 10-11.09 AS A RESULT OF TOTAL INFLUENCE OF DIS- TURBANCE OF FILAMENT EJECTIONS 6.09 AND EARTH's PASSING OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. 13-14.09 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE. ON OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNET- IC CONDITION, HOWEVER 17-18.09 THE PERFORMANCE RISE IS POSSIBLE 17 - 18.09 WHEN THE EARTH ENTERED IN THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CH "+" POLARITY. PROBABILITY MAGNETIC STORM DO NOT MORE THAN 5%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov