Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 17 - 23.09.2018, Forecast on 24.09 - 30.10.2018, Carrington Rotation 2208, 2209(02,3.09; 29,6.09.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (+7.18 - +6.85) deg. (S17 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY LOW (SPOTLESS -152 DAYS IN THIS YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO- NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=000 (Wn=000). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW. LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THREE SOLAR FILAMENTS AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 18.09 >0044 >1322 S05E22L158 20 20.09 1526 0613 S43E19L128 16 23.09 >1546 >0546 N25W54L031 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N50L109 N40L104 N30L141 N35L137 0.1% 29.09 R1 SDO, ACE... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 23.09/13 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR IS UNSTABLE. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDA- RY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 05.10. ------------------------------------------------------------------ SEPTEMBER 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 SEPTEMBER Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 068 068 068 067 067 068 068 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF - -/+ + + +/- - -/+ DSCOVR Å>2 5.0E+8 2.7E+8 4.0E+8 4.4å+8 4.3E+8 7.9å+7 2.6å+8 GOES Ie>2 34944 10052 8464 8688 10457 10633 8045 pfu Ap 10 6 4 2 9 29 13 nô Dst no data for September 2018 nô KIOTO Amsc 10 5 3 2 6 26 10 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 12.09/1410 AND 12 - 23.09 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 24-26.09. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 29, dur.= 30 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF BOULDER AND (G1, Ams=26, dur.=12 h.) AND 5 HOURS SUBSTORM (G1) AC- CORDING IZMIRAN DATA HAVE BEEN ODSERVED 21 - 23.09 AS A RESULT OF JOINT INFLUENCE OF SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS 20.09 DISTURBANCE AND EARTH's PASSING OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR NOTHERN CO- RONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. ON OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNET- IC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov