------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2018 HAS MADE Wsep. = 2.0 3.3(n) THAT GIVES FOR 109 MONTHS (2018, FEBRUARY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*march =5.9* 9.9 in new system W*feb. = 7.6 12.6 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - X 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2018, SEPTEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 73 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0 6.. 0 11.. 16M 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 14 17.. 13 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 15 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 14 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 12 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 15 Min: 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29.09 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON SEPTEMBER 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, MARCH F10.7sep. = 68.3 F*10.7march= 71.9 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON SEPTEMBER 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, MARCH Ap sep. = 9 Ap*march = 8.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.09.2018, Forecast on 08 - 15.10.2018, Carrington Rotation 2209(29,6.09.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (+6.69 - +6.49) deg. (S17 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY LOW AND AFTER 5.10 THE SUN IS SPOTLESS (SPOTLESS -160 DAYS IN THIS YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=004+ 4/-4 (Wn=004+6/-7). AFTER 29.09 ONE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISC TO 4.10 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO SOLAR FILAMENTS AND FOUR CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 03.10 >0018 >1327 N07E02L309 5 03.10 2059 SW ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N05L339 S05L344 S20L342 S02L324 2.4% 04.10 R3 - SDO, ACE... CH - Pn S10L291 S25L286 N05L264 13.6% 07.10 R3 - SDO, ACE... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 23.09/13 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR IS UNSTABLE AND 3 -6.10 SECTORAL SIGN WAS PRINCIPAL "-". NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 27.10. ------------------------------------------------------------------ ïëôñâòø 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 ïëôñâòø Wus 014 014 014 012 000 000 000 F10.7 070 067 068 067 069 069 068 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 030 030 030 010 010 000 000 msh N IMF + + + +/- - - +/- DSCOVR Å>2 2.2E+7 2.5E+7 3.2å+7 1.8E+7 1.2å+7 1.5å+7 5.8E+6 GOES Ie>2 860 768 996 954 456 408 343 pfu Ap 9 8 6 3 9 5 24 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 13 7 5 4 8 4 22 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 9 - 15.10. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REACHED THE LEVEL OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1) IN SECOND HALF OF 7.10 DUE TO HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM LARGE CANYON-SHAPED CORONAL HOLE (+) POLARITY. THE OTHER DAYS GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED THE NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE AND MINOR STORM CONDITION IS EXPECTED ON 8 - 9.10. IN OTHER DAYS IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov