Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 08 - 14.10.2018, Forecast on 15 - 22.10.2018, Carrington Rotation 2209(29,6.09.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (+6.49 - +6.25) deg. (S17 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY LOW AND AFTER 11.10 ON THE SUN APPEARS SUNSPOT (SPOTLESS -164 DAYS IN THIS YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERI- OD W= 005+8/-5 (Wn= 008+13/-8). TWO SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISC HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SOUTH HEMISPHERE HOW COMPLEX OF ACTIVE REGIONS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENTS AND NO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 13.10 1327 1341 S12E60L235 6 2724 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 23.09/13 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE. NEXT STABLE SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 27.10. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ïëôñâòø 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 ïëôñâòø Wus 000 000 000 000 011 022 022 F10.7 069 070 070 071 072 072 072 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 020 020 020 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.4E+8 1.0E+9 8.9E+8 1.1å+9 1.8å+9 8.7E+8 5.6å+6 GOES Ie>2 10717 39176 31178 35910 36880 35256 343 pfu Ap 21 17 18 9 5 4 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 22 19 18 11 6 11 6 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 8.10/1345 UT AND 8 - 13.10 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REACHED THE LEVEL OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=38, dur. =27 h.) ACCORDING OF BOULDER CENTER DATA AND (G1, Ams =43, dur.=12 Þ.) AT 7-8.10 DUE TO HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM LARGE CANYON-SHAPED CORONAL HOLE (+) POLARITY. 9-10.10 THE LE- VEL OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REMAIND ACTIVE. THE OTHER DAYS GEOMAG- NETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE- TIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov