------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OCTOBER 2018 HAS MADE Woct. = 2.9 4.9(n) THAT GIVES FOR 111 MONTHS (2018, APRIL) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*apr. = 4.7 7.9 - in new system W*march =5.9* 9.9 in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - X 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYS- TEM) FOR 2018, OCTOBER ACCORDING DATA OF 74 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 17 6.. 0 11.. 5 16.. 0 21.. 3 26.. 0 31.. 0 2.. 14 7.. 0 12.. 13 17.. 11 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 12 8.. 0 13.. 26M 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 11 9.. 0 14.. 23 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 17 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 0 Min : 0 on 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 16, 18, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON OCTOBER 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, APRIL F10.7oct. = 69.6 F*10.7apr.= 70.6 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON OCTOBER 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, APRIL Ap oct. = 7.0 Ap*apr = 8.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.10 - 04.11.2018, Forecast on 05 - 12.11.2018, Carrington Rotation 2210(26,10.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (+5.76 - +5.52) deg. (S20 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO SUNSPOT ON THE SUN (SPOTLESS - 184 DAYS IN THIS YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 000 (Wn=000). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENTS AND NO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 03.11 >1001 >2209 N26W38L216 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N12L346 N10L347 S10L334 S15L324 1.7% 31.10 4 - SOHO,SDO... CH + N30L018 N28L020 S12L000 S08L345 3.4% 04.11 4 G1 SOHO,SDO... Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 28.10/03 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE. NEXT STABLE SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 9.11. --------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 NOVEMBER Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 069 067 068 067 068 067 067 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + +/~ +/~ +/~ +/~ +/~ DSCOVR Å>2 1.0E+6 8.1E+5 8.0E+5 2.3å+5 4.8å+5 5.7E+5 3.1E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu Ap 3 6 3 5 4 3 18 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 3 5 5 5 4 21 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 06 - 12.11. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE TO THE SECOND HALF AT 04.09 WHEN IN RESPONSE TO EARTH's PASSING OF THE HIGH-SPEED STRE- AM ON EARTH THE MAGNETIC STORM OF G2 INTENSITY ACCORDING TO THE CEN- TER IN BOULDER AND G1 ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA IS REGISTERED. MS IS CONTINUE ON TIME OF THE HIGHLIGHT WRITING. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE- TIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov