Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 12 - 18.11.2018, Forecast on 19 - 26.11.2018, Carrington Rotation 2210, 2211 (26,87.10; 23,17.11.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (+5.32 - +5.04) deg. (S23 - N24 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PE- RIOD W= 008+1/-1 (Wn= 012+2/-1). THERE ARE TWO SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY TURNS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 13.11 >1436 >0630 N45W25L096 7 14.11 >2240 >1431 S11W15L094 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 15.11/1030 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE. NEXT STABLE SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 5.12. --------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 NOVEMBER Wus 015 011 011 013 014 013 014 F10.7 068 067 068 068 071 073 072 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 á1.0 á1.7 á1.5 GOES Sp 010 010 010 020 020 060 060 msh N 1 1 IMF - - - -/+ + + + DSCOVR Å>2 3.6E+7 7.1E+7 8.0E+7 6.7å+7 6.3å+7 4.6E+7 3.8E+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu Ap 9 4 3 2 2 1 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 4 6 3 3 2 3 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 5.11/1635 UT AND 5 - 17.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE- TIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov