Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 19 - 25.11.2018, Forecast on 26.11 - 02.12.2018, Carrington Rotation 2210, 2211 (26,87.10; 23,17.11.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (+4.9 - +4.82) deg. (S23 - N24 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW. 20 - 23.11 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS. ESTIMATED, MOST LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 004+3/-4 (Wn = 6+8/-6). ON VISIBLE SOLOAR DISC TWO SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N50L354 N40L006 N15L001 N25L346 3.5% 25.11 SDO, SOHO... CH - N03L346 S05L350 S18L352 S10L342 1,8% 26.11 R5 SDO, SOHO... CH + N30L349 S10L352 S18L342 S00L297 1.7% 30.11 R5 G2 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 20.11/13 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD FNL AFTER 23.11 - "+" SECTOR AGAIN. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 5.12. --------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 NOVEMBER Wus 012 000 000 000 000 014 015 F10.7 071 071 069 069 071 070 070 èbcg á1.2 á1.1 á1.2 á1.1 á1.0 á1.0 á1.0 GOES Sp 010 000 000 000 000 020 020 msh N IMF + +/- - - -/+ + + DSCOVR Å>2 7.9E+6 1.8E+6 1.5E+6 2.4å+6 6.3å+7 3.1E+6 3.8E+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu Ap 4 5 5 3 3 4 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE- TIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov