------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2018 HAS MADE Wnov. = 3.5 5.9(n) THAT GIVES FOR 112 MONTHS (2018, MAY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*may = 4.5 7.5 - in new system W*Ápr. = 4.7 7.9 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYS- TEM) FOR 2018, NOVEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 15M 21.. 0 26.. 10 2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 15M 17.. 15M 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 11 13.. 11 18.. 14 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 11 14.. 11 19.. 12 24.. 15M 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 11 15.. 13 20.. 0 25.. 14 30.. 0 Maximum : 15 on 12, 16, 17, 24 Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 20, 21, 22, 23, 27, 28, 29, 30 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON NOVEMBER 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, MAY F10.7nov. = 68.9 F*10.7may.= 70.2 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON NOVEMBER 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, MAY Ap nov. = 6.0 Ap*may = 7.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.11 - 02.12.2018, Forecast on 03 - 10.12.2018, Carrington Rotation 2211 (23,17.11.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (+4.82- +4.60) deg. (S24 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VE- RY LOW- THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (201 DAYS AT 2018). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 000 (Wn = 000). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE FILAMENT EJECTI- ON AND TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 30.11 0214 0603 S60W01L253 17 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N03L346 S05L350 S18L352 S10L342 1,8% 26.11 R5 SDO, SOHO... CH + N30L349 S10L352 S18L342 S00L297 1.7% 30.11 R5 G2 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 27.11/2130 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 5.12. --------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 DECEMBER Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 069 068 068 068 068 069 069 èbcg á1.0 á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + +/- - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 2.0E+6 1.6E+6 4.6E+6 80å+5 9.5å+5 6.0E+5 3.4E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu Ap 2 5 3 2 2 8 12 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 1 7 3 3 4 8 13 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 3-10.12. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE- TIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov