Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 03 - 10.12.2018, Forecast on 11 - 18.12.2018, Carrington Rotation 2211 (23,17.11.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (+4.82- +4.60) deg. (S24 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL, THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 3-4.12 (203 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2018). ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=006+4/-6 (Wn= 010+6/-10). ON THE SOLAR DISK ONE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE FILAMENT EJECTI- ON AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 05.12 >1444 >1132 N34E38L226 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 8.12/21 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 12.12. --------------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 DECEMBER Wus 000 000 016 017 016 012 012 F10.7 068 069 071 070 070 069 072 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 á1.9 á1.9 á1.7 á2.3 á4.6 GOES Sp 000 000 030 050 050 010 010 msh N IMF + + + + + +/- - DSCOVR Å>2 7.7E+5 1.9E+6 2.0E+6 3.9å+6 3.6å+6 1.3E+7 1.2E+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu Ap 11 8 5 5 10 10 11 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 10 10 4 5 11 9 10 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED . THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE- TIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov