HAPPY NEW YEAR for all my dear users!!!!!! Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 24.12.2018 - 06.01.2019, Forecast on 07 - 14.01.2019, Carrington Rotation 2212 (20,5.12.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.9 - -3.7) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (220 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2018). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=000 (Wn=000). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO FILAMENT EJECTION AND THREE (all from E-limb)CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N15L235 S15L250 S25L235 S10L210 12.3% 3-4.1 R1 - SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 27.12/0830 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 05.01. ------------------------------------------------------------------ äåëáâòø 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 äåëáâòø Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 070 070 069 069 069 069 069 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 á1.0 á1.1 á1.1 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF - - - -/+ + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.4E+7 7.6E+7 1.4E+6 1.8å+6 1.8å+6 6.5E+7 1.2E+8 GOES Ie>2 341 260 2832 4040 pfu Ap 3 3 2 5 24 11 10 nô Dst no data for 28 - 31.12 nô KIOTO Amsc 3 4 2 4 19 11 11 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 29.12 AND OBSERVED 29-30.12. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 31.12.2018 - 07.01.2019. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET TO 28.12 WHEN THE EARTH WAS PASSED INTO THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE TRANS -EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND ON NEAR-EARTH SPACE THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED (G1, Ams=21, dur.=21 h) ACCORDING THE CENTER IN BOUL- DER DATA AND OF ONLY 6 h SUBSTORM (G0) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA. 29- 30.12 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK AT MID LATITUDES THE QUITE AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION IS MOST PROBABLE. GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE 3 - 4.01 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE NEXT "FRIAB- LE" TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. THE PROBABILITY OF THE MINOR MAGNE- TIC STORM NO MORE THAN 10%. AT HIGH LATITUDES WE HAVE PROBABILITY TO OBSERVE THE AURORA AT THESE DAYS NOT LESS THAN 90%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov