HAPPY NEW YEAR for all my dear users!!!!!! 24 cycle of solar activity entered in the 11th year of the development with very low values of Wolf number. For the first cycles of the lowered epoch of solar activity (12-14) which was opened by the current solar cycle, it means that point of minimum SC to us still to wait for 1.5-2 years if, of course, the Sun not will go on the way of the last cycles of the epoch (15-16) when length of SC was 10.08 and 10:25 years. Then the minimum will come literally by March, 2019. If you look at the criterion W * <5, the branch of recession for cycles of the era of low SA can last from 8 to 23 months. The current cyc- le has been for three months, as this border has passed. šš How interesting it is to live when the statistics of reliable observations is small (17 solar cycles), and there is no model of solar cyclicity and is not foreseen ..... šššššššššššššššššššššššššššššš Wait and see! Vitaly Ishkov ------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2018 HAS MADE Wnov. = 1.9 3.1(n) THAT GIVES FOR 113 MONTHS (2018, JUNE) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*june = 4.4 7.3 - in new system W*may = 4.5 7.5 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYS- TEM) FOR 2018, DECEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0 6.. 20ํ 11.. 12 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 31.. 0 2.. 0 7.. 18 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 6 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 11 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 17 10.. 0 15.. 12 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 12, 13, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON DECEMBER 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, JUNE F10.7dec. = 70.0 F*10.7june= 70.0 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON DECEMBER 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, JUNE Ap dec. = 6.2 Ap*june = 7.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 31.12.2018 - 06.01.2019, Forecast on 07 - 14.01.2019, Carrington Rotation 2212 (20,5.12.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.9 - -3.7) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL, THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 31.12 (220 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2018). ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=007+3/-7 (Wn=012+ 3/-12). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK ONE SMALL BUT COMPARATIVELY ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. THREE FILAMENT EJECTION AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/ฯp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l ื วามฤ. Fl AR CME/to 02.01 >1021 >2228 S22E22L210 42 02.01 >1344 >1215 S55W13L175 51 02.01 <1721 <1940 S71W49L139 43 04.01 >2347 >1424 S41E70L232 11 06.01 >0941 >2246 S42E39L175 9 The first 3 events with high probability one ejection of solar filament, which was observed by three different observatories -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N15L235 S15L250 S25L235 S10L210 12.3% 3-4.1 R1 - SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 2.01/1430 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 24.01.2019 ------------------------------------------------------------------ DECEMBER 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 JANUARY Wus 000 013 016 016 013 013 012 F10.7 069 072 075 073 072 071 072 ่bcg แ1.0 แ1.0 แ1.9 แ2.3 แ1.5 แ1.8 แ2.5 GOES Sp 000 010 030 090 050 010 010 msh N 1 IMF + + +/- - - - - DSCOVR ล>2 8.5E+7 2.1E+9 3.4E+7 3.2ๅ+7 1.6ๅ+7 1.0E+6 3.7E+7 GOES Ie>2 3751 1700 737 660 666 1509 pfu Ap 7 6 2 2 9 16 9 n๔ Dst -7 -18 -14 n๔ KIOTO Amsc 11 12 2 4 9 16 10 n๔ IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------- ล>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 06.01 AND OBSERVED 06.01.2019 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 07 - 14.01.2019. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. ONLY ONE SUBSTORM (G1, dur. ~ 6 h) IT IS REGISERED ON BORDER 4-5.01 - THE ECHO OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE "FRIABLE" CORONAL HOLE. AT HIGH LATITUDES THE AURORA WAS OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK AT MID LATITUDES IS EXPECTED THE QUITE AND UNSETTLED HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov