Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 14 - 20.01.2019, Forecast on 21 - 28.01.2019, Carrington Rotations 2212 2213 (20,5.12.2018; 16,83.01.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.4 - -5.1) deg. (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (13 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2019). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 000 (Wn= 000). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. NO FILAMENT EJECTION AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N30L342 N25L345 S13L297 S15L292 10% 23.1 R6 - SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 2.01/1430 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 24.01.2019 ------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 JANUARY Wus 000 000 000 0000 000 000 000 F10.7 070 070 070 069 069 070 069 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 9.6E+6 5.0E+6 1.7E+6 4.1å+5 5.8å+5 9.5E+5 9.5E+5 GOES Ie>2 583 214 148 pfu Ap 6 5 6 7 5 4 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 4 6 7 6 6 4 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 06.01 AND OBSERVED 06.01.2019 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 24.01.2019. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITITON IS EXPECTED TO BE PRRIMARILQUITE AND UN- SETTLED, WITH A CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONDITION AND G1 STORMING AT 23-24. 01 (THE PROBABILITY ~30%), DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE "+" POLARITY CORONAL HOLE (CH HSS). HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov