Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 21 - 27.01.2019, Forecast on 28.01 - 4.02.2019, Carrington Rotation 2213 (16,83.01.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.1 - -6.1) deg. (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, BUT THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 21.01 ONLY (14 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2019). ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 010+6/-10 (Wn= 017+9/-17). ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISC ONE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT LOW AND VE- RY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010 +10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. ONE FILAMENT EJECTION AND THREE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 25.01 >1038 >2302 S47E39L280 26 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N30L342 N25L345 S13L297 S15L292 10% 23.1 R6 - SDO, SOHO... CH - S05L215 S15L250 S30L225 S15L205 <10% 31.1 R5 - SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 24.01/0542 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 31.01.2019 ------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 JANUARY Wus 000 010 019 019 027 026 022 F10.7 070 071 072 072 075 077 074 èbcg <á1.0 á1.6 á1.9 á2.3 á4.5 á5.9 á3.5 GOES Sp 000 020 030 030 050 080 090 msh N 1 IMF - - - -/+ + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.1E+6 7.6E+5 3.2E+5 4.0å+5 3.4å+7 7.9E+7 7.3E+7 GOES Ie>2 1408 pfu Ap 4 4 13 19 14 7 4 nô Dst -13 -18 -16 nô KIOTO Amsc 4 4 10 22 13 11 5 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 25.01 AND OBSERVED 25-27.01.2019 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 28.01.2019. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN- SETTLED TILL 23.02 WHEN ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED (G0, Ams=22, dur.=12 h) AND 24.01-THE SUBSTORM (G1) dur. <6 h. IT IS THE ANSWER OF NEAR-EARTH SPACE ON PAS- SING BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM THE CO- RONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. AFTER 25.01 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSSET- LED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITITON IS EXPECTED QUITE AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov