------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2019 HAS MADE Wjan. = 4.7 7.8(n) THAT GIVES FOR 114 MONTHS (2018, JULY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*july = 4.3 7.1 - in new system W*june = 4.4 7.3 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYS- TEM) FOR 2019, JANUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 13 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 10 26.. 26í 31.. 0 2.. 15 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 16 27.. 19 3.. 16 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 19 28.. 16 4.. 13 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 21 29.. 13 5.. 12 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 23 30.. 11 Minimum : 0 on 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 31 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON JANUARY 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, JULY F10.7jan. = 71.6 F*10.7july= 70.0 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JANUARY 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, JUNE Ap jan. = 6.0 Ap*july = 7.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.01 - 03.02.2019, Forecast on 04 - 11.02.2019, Carrington Rotation 2213 (16,83.01.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.1 - -7.1) deg. (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, BUT THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 21.01 ONLY (17 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2019). ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 004+6/-4 (Wn=006+9/6). ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISC ONE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT LOW AND VE- RY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBERIN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010 +10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. TWO FILAMENT EJECTION AND NO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 29.09 >2044 >1902 S19W64L124 5 29.09 >2044 >1902 S56E02L190 14 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S05L215 S15L250 S30L225 S15L205 <10% 31.1 R5 - SDO, SOHO... CH - S15L171 S22L188 S38L156 S25L148 6.8% 7.02 R1 - SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 30.01/0155 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 21.02.2019 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 28 29 30 31 01 02 03 FEBRUARY Wus 016 015 012 000 000 000 000 F10.7 076 073 074 072 072 071 071 èbcg á3.8 á5.1 á5.5 á3.6 á1.2 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 080 090 090 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + +/- - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 7.3E+7 5.6E+7 6.7E+7 1.1å+7 2.2å+7 2.6E+8 4.1E+8 GOES Ie>2 1386 1250 1563 1413 898 11372 pfu Ap 1 2 2 14 17 17 11 nô Dst -13 -22 -31 -29 nô KIOTO Amsc 2 2 1 12 20 17 6 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 25.01/1730 AND OBSERVED 25-31.01.2019 THE SECOND FLUX BEGAN 01.02/ 2230 UT AND 2-3.02 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 4 - 11.02. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN- SETTLED TO THE END OF DAY 31.02 WHEN THE ACTIVE CONDITION BEGAN AND 1 - 2.02 FOUR SUBSTORM BY INTENSITY (G1, G0) AND LONG (3 -9 h.) HAVE BEEN REGISTRED. IT IS THE ANSWER OF NEAR-EARTH SPACE ON PASSING BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM THE "FRIABLE" CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITITON IS EXPECTED QUITE AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov