Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 18 - 24.02.2019, Forecast on 25.02 - 4.03.2019, Carrington Rotation 2214 (12,5.03.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.9 - -7.1) deg. (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL: THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (38 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2019). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKE- LY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 000 (Wn= 000). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT VERY LOW LEVEL AND THE SUN IS EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO FILAMENT EJECTION, ONE OF WHICH (20.02) ACCOMPANIED BY FLARE OF A9.7 CLASS IN SPOTLESS AR IN CENTRAL PART OF THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK AND SECOND ACCOMPANIED CME (23.02) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DOUBLE CME 20.02 AND ONE 23.02 OBSERVED FOR THE PERIOD. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 20.02 0401 0446 N03W06L248 21 23.02 2332 N16W30L173 9 CME/24/0125 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH* + N20L335 S05L340 S40L330 S20L310 6.8% 19.02 R8 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH**+ N00L242 S15L252 S40L222 S15L182 11.2% 26.02 R6 G1 SDO, SOHO.. * may be R1 (it appearance at 13.02); ** Perhaps a conglomerate 4 CH; Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 23.02/14 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. 20/2140-21/20 UT WAS REGISTERED "+" SECTOR. NEXT SECTOR BOUN- DARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 27.02.2019. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 FEBRUARY Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 070 070 071 071 071 071 071 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF - - -/+ +/- - -/+ + DSCOVR Å>2 1.2E+7 1.1E+7 1.7E+7 6.3å+5 6.9å+5 1.0E+6 1.4å+6 GOES Ie>2 670 281 652 736 pfu Ap 7 3 3 11 4 2 2 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 3 4 10 4 2 2 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 27.02 - 04.03. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN- SETTLED. 26-28.02 THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM LARGE TRANCE-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE THAT CAN CAUSE ACTIVE CON- DITION ON ENVIRONMENT ON WHICH DISTURBATION FROM EJECTA OF BIG FILA- MENT (20.02) CAN BE IMPOSED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM IS ABOUT 30%. IN OTHER DAYS THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov