------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2019 HAS MADE Wjan. = 0.5 0.8(n) THAT GIVES FOR 115 MONTH (2018, AUGUST) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*aug. = 4.1 6.8 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*july = 4.3 7.1 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - October 2018; NOAA - February 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (~ 20), can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYS- TEM) FOR 2019, FEBRUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 11 26.. 0 2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 12 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28. [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON FEBRUARY 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, AUGUST F10.7feb. = 70.6 F*10.7aug.= 70.0 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON FEBRUARY 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, AUGUST Ap feb. = 6.0 Ap*aug = 7.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 25.02 - 3.03.2019, Forecast on 4 - 11.03.2019, Carrington Rotation 2214 (12,5.03.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (-7.1 - -7.2) deg. (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL: THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (46 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2019). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKE- LY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 000 (Wn= 000). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT VERY LOW LEVEL AND THE SUN IS EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO FILAMENT EJECTION AND 4 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 25.02 >2317 >1406 S50W32L156 19 27.02 1610 1900 S41W65L197 12 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH*+ N00L242 S15L252 S40L222 S15L182 11.2% 26.02 R6 G1 SDO, SOHO.. * Perhaps a conglomerate of 4 CH; Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 27.02/08 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 23.03.2019. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 25 26 27 28 01 02 03 MARCH Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 070 071 071 070 070 069 070 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + +/- - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.6E+6 6.0E+5 1.5E+5 5.0å+7 6.3å+8 1.6E+9 1.9å+9 GOES Ie>2 2384 27886 62290 45516 pfu Ap 2 2 10 28 24 12 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 2 3 10 24 24 15 7 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. HIGH (and after 2.03 - extremal) THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 28.02/1710 UT AND 20.02 - 03.03 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 04 - 11.03. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MEDIUM LATITUDES UP TO THE END OF A DAY 27. 02 REMAINS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. ACTIVE CONDITION ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA STARTED AFTER 6 h. (SUBSTORM G1), THEN CONTI- NUED MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 32, dur.= 21 h.), AND AGAIN NEXT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0 , Ams= 27, dur.=12 h.) after 6 h. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA 27.02 SUBSTORM (G0) LASTED FOR 3 h., THE FIRST STORM (G1, Ams= 21 dur.= 15 h.) AND THE SECOND (G1, Ams=26 dur.= 15 h.). THESE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES WERE THE RESULT OF THE EARTH PASSAGE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAMS SOLAR WIND FROM CONGLOMERATE OF TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLES. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ON OTHER DAYS REMAINS QUIET AND UNSETTLED 7-8.02 THE EARTH WILL BE PASSING A HIGH-SPEED FLOW OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONGLOMERATE OF THE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CO- RONAL HOLES (it is not possible to isolate the separate ones), THAT CAN CAUSE ON THE MEDIUM LATITUDES AN ACTIVE CONDITION. THE PROBABILI- TY OF A MAGNETIC STORM ORDER IS 10%. IN OTHER DAYS THE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLEDED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. IN OTHER DAYS THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov