------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2019 HAS MADE Wmarch = 5.7 9.5(n) THAT GIVES FOR 116 MONTH (2018, SEPTEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*sep. = 4.0 6.6 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*aug. = 4.1 6.8 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - October 2018; NOAA - February 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SO 25 (~ 20), can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYS- TEM) FOR 2019, MARCH ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0 6.. 18 11.. 11 16.. 0 21.. 37M 26.. 0 31.. 12 2.. 0 7.. 16 12.. 11 17.. 0 22.. 30 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 11 13.. 0 18.. 13 23.. 22 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 11 14.. 13 19.. 16 24.. 15 29.. 0 5.. 14 10.. 11 15.. 0 20.. 33 25.. 0 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 15, 16, 17, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON MARCH 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, SEPTEMBER F10.7feb. = 71.5 F*10.7sep.= 70.1 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MARCH 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, SEPTEMBER Ap march = 6.0 Ap*sep. = 7.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 25 - 31.03.2019, Forecast on 1 - 8.04.2019, Carrington Rotation 2215 (12,5.03.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (-7.4 - -7.1) deg. (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL (59 SPOTLESS DAYS ON 2019). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)FOR PERIOD W = 1+1/-1 (Wn= 2+11/-2). ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISC ONE SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP WAS APPEARED 31.02. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL AT VERY LOW LEVEL. LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS. NO FILAMENT EJECTION AND TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (27 AND 29.03) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N18L188 N05L213 S15L188 S05L178 6.1% 28.03 R7 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S10L104 S21L139 S45L109 S20L099 <13.1% 3.04 R3 - SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 27.03/17 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 16.04. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 MARCH Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 014 F10.7 071 069 069 068 069 069 070 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 010 msh N IMF + + +/- - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.8E+7 3.7E+7 4.3E+6 2.2å+6 1.2å+7 3.9E+7 9.5å+6 GOES Ie>2 1146 363 152 139 465 793 806 pfu Ap 5 6 8 11 7 2 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 4 6 10 8 3 12 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. HIGH THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT 25.03 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 3.04. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MEDIUM LATITUDES REMAINS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT PERIOD THE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLEDED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION IS EXPECTED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov