Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 22 - 28.04.2019, Forecast on 29.04 - 05.05.2019, Carrington Rotation 2216 (08,8.04.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.1 - -5.6) deg. (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, WAS THE SUN BECAME SPOTLESS (69 DAYS ON 2019). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 (Wn=0). CORONAL CONDENSATION OF THE ACTIVE REGION, LEADING FOR WESTERN LIMB 19.04, CONTINUES TO EMIT NOTISEABLE BACKGROUND SOFT X-RAY RADIATION (perhaps the problem with a photometer, but messages was not yet) WHICH IS UN- USUAL FOR A SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE SOLAR CYCLE PHASE OF MINIMUM. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL AT VERY LOW LEVEL AND THE SUN WILL SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+1/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS. NO FILAMENT EJECTION AND 5 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (22, 27-28.04) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óî - N10L235 S10L234 S40L202 S20L182 <13.4 23.04 8 - ACE SOHO... óî - N10L108 S02L121 S28L106 S15L083 <10.6 02.05 4 - ACE SOHO... Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 23.04/22 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 15.05. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- áðòåìø 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 áðòåìø Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 069 069 069 068 067 067 067 èbcg á6.6 á6.0 á5.9 á5.9 * á5.9 á6.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + +/- - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 8.0E+6 7.7E+6 3.2E+6 3.4å+6 3.4å+6 2.0E+6 2.8å+6 GOES Ie>2 211 268 174 106 109 pfu Ap 4 8 7 5 3 6 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 6 7 7 5 7 5 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MEDIUM LATITUDES UP REMAINS QUIET AND UNSET- TLED. NEXT PERIOD THE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION IS EXPECTED. CORONAL HOLE TOO "FRIABLE" THAT TO GIVE A SUBSTANTI- VE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE, ALTHOUGH THE AURORA WILL BE OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov