Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 06 - 12.05.2019, Forecast on 13 - 20.05.2019, Carrington Rotation 2217 (06,0.05.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.3 - -4.7) deg. (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 15+1/-1 (Wn=23+3/-1). TWO SUBSPOT GROUP IN NORTH HEMISPHERE ON SOLAR VISIBLE DISC HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL AT VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 6.05, THE VERY LOW LE- VELS - AT 7-9.05 AND VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. 4 FILAMENT EJEC- TION AND MORE 11 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 0506 0504 0510 0518 N08E50L307 M1.0/1N 2.0E-03 12740 II/2 CME/0548 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 10.05 1900 1930 N11W16L278 7 CME 11.05 0000 0030 N15E01L282 13 CME/0320 12.05 >0129 >1315 S13E01L269 10 12.05 >0926 >2307 S01W00L268 19 12741 CME/2036 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 23.04/22 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 15.05. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- MAY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 MAY Wus 025 027 024 025 024 026 024 F10.7 076 079 075 076 076 078 076 èbcg ÷1.4 ÷1.2 ÷1.0 á9.4 A9.3 B1.0 á9.9 GOES Sp 300 410 320 280 270 260 280 msh N 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 3.2E+7 3.0E+7 3.1E+7 6.5+6 7.6å+6 8.9E+7 4.7å+7 GOES Ie>2 1094 1047 885 943 320 3374 pfu Ap 5 5 3 7 7 25 4 nô Dst -15 -52 -31 nô KIOTO Amsc 4 6 3 9 10 28 5 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 2.05/1645 UT AND OBSERVED 2 -7.05. NEXT FLUX BEGUN AT 11/1645 UT AND OBSERVED 11-12.05. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 13-15.05. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED TILL 11.05 QUIET AND UNSETTLED. AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 11.05 CAME THE DISTURBAN- CE FROM M1 FLARE AT 6.05 IN THE FORM OF SLOW INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTION REACHED NEAR-EARTH SPACE AND CAUSED THE GLOBAL MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 32, dur.=1 5 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND (G1, Ams=29, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DA- TA. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THERE IS A PROBABILITY, THE FACT THAT 15-16.05 TO THE EARTH WILL BE COME BY CONSECUTIVE DISTURBANCES FROM DFS 10 - 12.05. ALL CME HAVE TO THE COMPONENTS, MENTIONING NEAR-EARTH SPACE. PROBABILITY OF MAG- NETIC STORMS IS 15-17.05 NOT LESS THAN 40%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNE- TIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov