------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2019 HAS MADE Wjune = 0.7* 1.2(n) THAT GIVES FOR 119 MONTH (2018, DECEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*dec. = 3.6* 6.0 - in new system W*nov. = 4.0 6.7 - in new system * - preliminary values. On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - October 2018; NOAA - February 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SO 25 (~ 20), can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYS- TEM) FOR 2019, JUNE ACCORDING DATA OF 69 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 7 2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 11 29.. 5 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 12M 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 27, 28, 30 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON JUNE 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, DECEMBER F10.7june = 68.1 F*10.7dec.= 70.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JUNE 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, DECEMBER Ap june = 4.3 Ap*dec. = 6.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 24 - 30.06.2019, Forecast on 01 - 08.07.2019, Carrington Rotation 2218, 2219 (29.5.06; 29,5.06.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (0.0 - 0.5) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL AND AFTER 27.06 THE SOLAR DISC IS SPOTLESS (112 SPOTLESS DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 3+4/-3 (Wn=5+7/-5). ON SOLAR VISIBLE DISC TWO SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE- VELS. THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI- ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 2 SOLAR FILAMENT AND 2 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 28.06 <0908 <0943 E-limb 0.16 B.9A EPL CME/0912 28.06 >1732 >0437 S35W25L339 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N07L005 S08L009 S15L002 S002L352 1,8% 4-5.07 R1 - SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 25.06/1239 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE SIGN OF THE FIELD IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN VARIABLE IN VERY SMALL VALUES. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 11.07. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 JUNE Wus 024 012 011 011 000 000 000 F10.7 068 068 068 067 068 068 067 èbcg á6.7 á6.8 á6.8 á6.9 A6.9 A6.8 á6.9 GOES Sp 020 010 000 010 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + + - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 3.7E+5 4.3E+5 1.9E+6 2.0E+6 2.0E+6 2.1E+6 2.1å+6 GOES Ie>2 pfu Ap 5 4 5 3 4 3 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 5 7 5 3 4 4 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ALL DAYS REMAINED QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSET- TLED. HOWEVER 4 - 5.07 IS POSSIBLE GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATION DUE TO THE EARTH PASSAGE OF HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE WITH GEOEFFECTIVE PARAMETERS. THE PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ~ 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov