------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2019 HAS MADE Wjune = 0.7* 1.2(n) THAT GIVES FOR 119 MONTH (2018, DECEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*dec. = 3.6* 6.0 - in new system W*nov. = 4.0 6.7 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - October 2018; NOAA - February 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SO 25 (~ 20), can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYS- TEM) FOR 2019, JUNE ACCORDING DATA OF 69 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 7 2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 11 29.. 5 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 12M 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 27, 28, 30 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON JUNE 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, DECEMBER F10.7june = 68.1 F*10.7dec.= 70.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JUNE 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2018, DECEMBER Ap june = 4.3 Ap*dec. = 6.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.06.2019, Forecast on 08 - 15.07.2019, Carrington Rotation 2219 (29,5.06.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (0.0 - 0.5) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THE SOLAR DISC WAS SPOTLESS BEFORE 7.07 (118 SPOTLESS DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W =1+6/-1 (Wn=1.6+10/-1.6). ON SOLAR VISIBLE DISC ONE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE- VELS. THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI- ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N35L291 N22L296 N15L293 N202L276 2.4% 9.07 R4 - SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. THE CORONAL "PSEUDOHOLES", EXCLUDING THE POLAR CH, ON CONDITION OF ENVI- RONMENT DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- C 28.06 UT THE FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE MIDDLE ARE REMAINED WITH THE "+" SIGN. THE NEXT SECTOR LIMIT OF THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 11.07. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- JULY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 JULY Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 012 F10.7 068 067 067 068 067 067 067 èbcg á7.0 á7.0 á7.1 á7.0 A6.9 A6.8 á6.9 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 020 msh N IMF +/~ +/~ +/~ +/~ -/~ -/~ +/~ DSCOVR Å>2 1.8E+6 1.8E+6 1.8E+6 1.8E+6 1.8E+6 1.8E+6 1.9å+6 GOES Ie>2 pfu Ap 9 5 5 5 5 3 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 10 8 5 6 5 3 6 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ALL DAYS REMAINED QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSET- TLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov