Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 21.07.2019, Forecast on 22 - 29.07.2019, Carrington Rotation 2219, 2020 (26,7.07; 22,9.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (1.5 - 1.7) deg. (S24 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (137 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 (Wn=0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE- VELS. THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 21.07 >1733 >0500 S55E06L076 11 24.07 >0114 >1624 N47W36L356 6 Confirmation about DSF 21.07 came after the publication of the previ- ous review; -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N12L328 S12L344 S20L352 S10L342 3.2% 31.07 R3 - SDO, SOHO... 2 last rotations the CH was not geoeffective; Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REFLECTED A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND ENVIRONEMENT. C 28.06 UT THE FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE MIDDLE ARE REMAINED WITH THE "+" SIGN. THE NEXT SECTOR LIMIT OF THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 31.07. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- éàìø 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 éàìø Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 067 067 068 068 068 067 067 èbcg á6.4 á6.4 á6.4 á6.3 A6.3 A6.2 á6.4 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF +/~ +/~ + + ~ ~ + DSCOVR Å>2 3.7E+6 3.1E+6 4.3E+6 4.8E+6 5.5E+6 5.4E+6 4.0å+6 GOES Ie>2 pfu Ap 8 6 5 2 3 4 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 9 8 6 4 3 6 4 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 10.07/1230 AND 10-21.07 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN- SETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSET- TLED. 31.07-01.08 THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF GROWTH OF DISTURB- ATION BECAUSE OF THE EARTH HIGH-SPEED STREAM PASSAGE FROM A TRANS- EQUATORIAL CH. THE PROBABILITY OF A MAGNETIC STORM ~ 5%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov