------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2019 HAS MADE Wjune = 0.5 0.9(n) THAT GIVES FOR 120 MONTH (2019, JANUARY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*jan. = 3.2 5.4 - in new system W*dec. = 3.6 6.0 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - October 2018; NOAA - February 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>38 on July,2019), can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYS- TEM) FOR 2019, JULY ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 5 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 31.. 0 2.. 0 7.. 9M 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 8 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 5 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON JULY 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, JANUARY F10.7july = 67.1 F*10.7jan.= 70.0 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JULY 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, JANUARY Ap july = 6 Ap*jan. = 6.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 29.07 - 4.08.2019, Forecast on 5 - 12.08.2019, Carrington Rotation 2020 (22,9.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (1.7 - 1.9) deg. (S24 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (145 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 (Wn=0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 04.08 1640 NE qwadrant ? -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N12L328 S12L344 S20L352 S10L342 3.2% 31.07 R3 - SDO, SOHO... CH*+ N27L263 N20L284 S12L256 N20L252 5.6% 4.07 R1 A SDO, SOHO... 3 rotations the first CH was not geoeffective; * -last two rotations - the beach of nothern polar CH; Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REFLECTED A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND ENVIRONEMENT. C 29.06 UT THE FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE MIDDLE ARE REMAINED WITH THE "-" SIGN. THE NEXT SECTOR LIMIT OF THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 4.08. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 AUGUST Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 066 066 067 067 067 066 067 èbcg á6.4 á6.4 á6.4 á6.3 A6.3 A6.3 á6.3 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF -/~ -/~ - - -/~ -/~ -/+ DSCOVR Å>2 3.7E+6 4.0E+6 2.9E+6 3.3E+6 4.0E+6 4.3E+6 4.1å+6 GOES Ie>2 pfu Ap 5 8 8 8 4 2 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 10 6 12 3 3 6 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 6.08. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN- SETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION, UP TO THE MAGNETIC STORM LEVEL, IS EXPECTED 5-6.08, WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS A HIGH-SPEED STRE- AM FROM THE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. THE PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ~20%. IN OTHER DAYS, THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSET- TLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov