Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 19 - 25.08.2019,
                 Forecast on 26.08 - 01.09.2019,
    Carrington Rotation 2020, 2021 (26,7.07; 22,9.08.2019)   
            Earth out of ecliptic (2.2 - 2.5) deg. 
           (S24 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A
SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (162 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI-
MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0
(Wn = 0).  

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WAS ON VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=
010+10/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE CORONAL MASS 
EJECTIONS (12. 13.08) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/Ïp   J/m-2
DSF     to       te  localization   l × ÇÒÁÄ.  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser.
CH -  N05L329 S15L342 S30L331 S05L314 3.9% 27.08 4 -  SOHO, SDO....
CH +  N28L332 N15L357 N10L347 N18L327 3.2% 31.08 3 G1 SOHO, SDO.... 
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REFLECTED A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND ENVIRONEMENT.

 AFTER 04.08/0855 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTAB-
LE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE MIDDLE ARE REMAINED WITH THE "+". THE 
NEXT SECTOR THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 25.08.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
AUGUST   19     20     21     22     23     24     25    AUGUST
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000 
F10.7   068    067    067    066    067    066    066 
èbcg   á6.0   á6.1   á5.8   á5.7   A5.9   A6.0   á6.0    GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000    msh   
N                                 
IMF      +     +/-     -     -/+     +      +      +     DSCOVR   
Å>2  2.8E+7 2.5E+7 3.0E+7 2.9E+7 1.4E+7 2.4E+7 2.0å+7    GOES
Ie>2    662    535    706    770    528    482    404    pfu 
Ap       4      5      4      6      4      5      4     nô  
Dst                                                      nô KIOTO
Amsc     4      5      4      6      4      4      4     nô IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------            
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 
AT 6.08/1015 UT AND 6-18.08 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 1.09.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN-
SETTLED.

 THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY  TO BE  QUITE AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC 
CONDITION UP TO 31.08 WHEN THE EARTH ENTERS  TO HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF 
SOLAR WIND FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. MAGNETIC 
STORM PROBABILITY  IS NOT LESS THAN 40%.  IN ADDITION,  27.08 ACTIVE 
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION POSSIBLE DURING PASSING THE EARTH OF HIGH-SPEED  
STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. MAGNETIC STORM PROBABILITY IS 
LESS THAN 5%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov