------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2019 HAS MADE Waug. = 0.4 0.7(n) THAT GIVES FOR 121 MONTH (2019, FEBRUARY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*feb. = 3.0 5.0 - in new system W*jan. = 3.2 5.4 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - October 2018; NOAA - February 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>38 on July,2019), can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYSTEM) FOR 2019, AUGUST ACCORDING DATA OF 68 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 31.. 0 2.. 0 7.. 11 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 12í 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON AUGUST 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, FEBRUARY F10.7aug. = 67.1 F*10.7feb.= 69.8 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON AUGUST 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, FEBRUARY Ap aug. = 6.8 Ap*feb. = 6.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.08 - 01.09.2019, Forecast on 02 - 09.09.2019, Carrington Rotation 2021 (22,9.08.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (2.9 - 3.4) deg. (S23 - N29 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (169 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 1+1/-1 (Wn = 2+1/-2). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (27.08) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 29.08 >0948 >0104 S48W42L226 7 29.08 >0948 >0104 S44W24L244 5 31.08 2230 N45E05L241 ? -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N05L329 S15L342 S30L331 S05L314 3.9% 27.08 4 - SOHO, SDO.... CH + N28L332 N15L357 N10L347 N18L327 3.2% 31.08 3 G1 SOHO, SDO.... Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REFLECTED A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND ENVIRONEMENT UP TO 31.08. AFTER 04.08/0855 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTAB- LE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE MIDDLE ARE REMAINED WITH THE "+". BUT 28/04-30/1200 UT SIGN WAS "-". THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY THE EARTH MUST TO PASS 16.09. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 26 27 28 29 30 31 01 SEPTEMBER Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 012 F10.7 067 066 066 066 067 066 067 èbcg á6.0 á6.0 á6.1 á6.1 A6.0 A6.1 á6.3 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 010 msh N 1 IMF + +/- - - -/+ + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.0E+7 2.9E+6 3.0E+6 4.0E+6 3.9E+6 1.0E+8 8.0å+8 GOES Ie>2 314 8408 53007 pfu Ap 6 10 5 3 10 38 45 nô Dst -11 -34 -57 nô KIOTO Amsc 6 11 5 4 10 35 41 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 6.08/1015 UT AND 31.08-01.09 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 2-9.09. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN- SETTLED UP TO 31.08, WHEN THE EARTH GO IN HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF NOT- HERN CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 50, dur. =48 h.) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF IZMIRAN AND (G2, Ams=~44, dur. =>48 h.) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN THE BOULDER, OCCURED 31.08-01.09. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY TO BE QUITE AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov