Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 08.09.2019, Forecast on 09 - 16.09.2019, Carrington Rotation 2021 (22,9.08.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (3.4 - 3.8) deg. (S23 - N29 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (169 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 1+1/-1 (Wn = 2+1/-2). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO SOLAR FLARES "A" CLASS, ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION (5.09) AND TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (27.08) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 05.09 >0043 >1328 S54W26L136 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REFLECTED A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND ENVIRONEMENT AFTER 02.09. AFTER 04.08/0855 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "+". THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY THE EARTH MUST TO PASS 16.09. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- óåîôñâòø 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 óåîôñâòø Wus 012 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 069 069 069 068 068 074 068 èbcg á5.7 á6.1 á5.5 á4.7 A4.8 A4.5 á4.0 GOES Sp 020 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N 1 IMF + +/ ~ + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.6E+8 2.6E+9 3.0E+9 3.7E+8 5.9E+8 7.7E+8 3.5å+8 GOES Ie>2 61291 73718 87889 60084 16384 19284 17317 pfu Ap 21 10 11 14 9 7 10 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 20 8 10 12 7 7 9 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 6.08/1015 UT AND 2-8.09 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 9-16.09. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN- SETTLED AFTER 2.09. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 41, dur. =42 h.) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF IZMIRAN AND (G2, Ams = 40, dur.= 57 h.) AC- CORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN THE BOULDER, OCCURED 31.08-2.09. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY TO BE QUITE AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov