Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 16 - 22.09.2019, Forecast on 23 - 30.09.2019, Carrington Rotation 2021, 2222 (22,9.08; 19,16.09.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (6.8 - 7.15) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (188 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 (Wn = 0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THREE SOLAR FILA- MENT EJECTION (19, 21, 22.09) AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (20.08) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 19.09 ~2200 S3545W02L345 20 CME 20/0039 21.09 0110 ? SW 10 22.09 ~0830 N30E33L340 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N11L005 N09L007 S12L347 S10L345 1.6% 23.09 5 - SDO, SOHO... CH + N35L344 N20L345 S08L244 N15L309 5.6% 27-28.09 5 G2 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REFLECTED A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND ENVIRONEMENT. 15/07 - 18.09/09 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "-". THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY THE EARTH MUST PASS 24.09. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- SEPTEMBER 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 SEPTEMBER Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 069 068 066 067 067 068 068 èbcg á3.7 á3.6 á3.7 á3.6 A3.4 A3.7 á3.5 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF - - -/+ + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.1E+7 3.0E+7 2.1E+7 3.2E+7 4.9E+7 1.6E+7 2.9å+6 GOES Ie>2 1745 1141 1091 778 956 954 pfu Ap 11 9 9 4 3 7 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 10 9 9 4 3 8 3 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 31.08/1540 UT AND 31.08-18.09 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN- SETTLED. NEXT WEEK 27-28.09 EARTH WILL ENTER THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SO- LAR WIND FROM A RECURRENT TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY THAT WILL CAUSE OF ENVIRONMENT MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE. THE PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM AT MEDIUM LATITUDES IS AT LEAST 80%. ON OT- HER DAYS, THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov