Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 14 - 20.10.2019, Forecast on 21 - 28.10.2019, Carrington Rotation 2022, 2223 (19,16.09; 16,44.10.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (6.3 - 5.8) deg. (S20 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT- LESS VISIBLE DISK ALL DAYS (217 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 74%). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 (Wn=0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- TION AND FIVE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (14-15.09 - W-limb) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N08L328 S25L344 S40L322 S02L321 1.9% 20.10 6 - SDO, SOHO... CH + N45L306 N28L326 S28L309 N10L279 11.2% 25.10 5 G2 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR WIND PARAMENERS WERE AT BACKGROUND LEVELS THIS PERIOD UNDER A NO- MINAL SOLAR WIND REGIME. 23.09/09 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE, BUT IN THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "+". THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY THE EARTH MUST TO PASS 24.10. ------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 OCTOBER Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 066 067 066 066 066 066 065 èbcg á3.8 á4.3 á5.7 á6.3 A6.4 A6.5 á6.4 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 4.0E+7 1.0E+7 5.5E+6 7.2E+6 8.6E+6 8.5E+6 5.3å+6 GOES Ie>2 777 288 223 126 158 230 125 pfu Ap 6 5 7 5 6 5 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 4 6 6 6 6 6 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 26.09. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK 24-25.09 THE EARTH WILL PASS A HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM A RE- CURRENT EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY WITH CHARACTERISTICS AL- LOWING ITS GEOEFFICIENCY. THE PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS AT LEAST 40%. IN OTHER DAYS THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov