------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OCTOBER 2019 HAS MADE Woct. = 0.2 0.4(n) THAT GIVES FOR 123 MONTH (2019, APRIL) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*ÁÒr. = 2.6 4.3 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*ÍÁr. = 2.8 4.6 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax =82; (116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - October 2018; NOAA - February 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>43 on October 2019) can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYSTEM) FOR 2019, OCTOBER ACCORDING DATA OF 64 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 7í 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 31.. 0 2.. 6 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 3 - 31.10 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON OCTOBER 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, APRIL F10.7 oct. = 67.4 F*10.7 apr.= 69.6 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON OCTOBER 2019, AND SMOOT- HES ON 2019, APRIL Ap oct. = 8 Ap*apr. = 6.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.10 - 03.11.2019, Forecast on 04 - 11.11.2019, Carrington Rotation 2223 (16,44.10.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (5.3 - 4.9) deg. (S20 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT- LESS VISIBLE DISK OBSERVED 28 - 31.10 (228 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 75%). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PE- RIOD W= 2+6/-2 (Wn=3+10/-3). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC TWO SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP (one with 25 solar cycle order polarity) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- TION AND THREE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (31.10) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N10L144 S11L162 S30L154 S02L132 5.5% 3.11 1 A SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS AFTER 28.10 WERE AT BACKGROUND LEVELS THIS PERIOD UNDER A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND REGIME. 23.09/09 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE, BUT IN THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "+". THE NEXT PERIOD SECTOR BOUNDARY REMAINED UNSTABLE. ------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 28 29 30 31 01 02 03 NOVEMBER Wus 000 000 000 000 011 013 000 F10.7 069 069 070 071 071 071 069 èbcg á7.1 á6.7 á6.5 á6.4 A6.6 A6.7 á6.7 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 010 010 000 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + + +/- - -/+ DSCOVR Å>2 1.7E+9 1.0E+9 5.2E+8 3.2E+7 8.4E+7 1.1E+8 1.4å+8 GOES Ie>2 58345 59548 20047 1185 2152 2296 2934 pfu Ap 11 8 9 7 3 1 2 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 11 8 9 6 4 2 3 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 25.10/0845 UT AND 25.10-03.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD THE MOST PROBABLY IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov