Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 04 - 10.11.2019, Forecast on 11 - 18.11.2019, Carrington Rotation 2223 (16,44.10.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (4.9 - 4.5) deg. (S20 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT- LESS VISIBLE DISK (235 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 75%). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 0 (Wn=0. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 5.11 THE FIRST FLARE (B1.3) OCCURRED IN THE AR12750 (AFTER 2.11 SPOTLESS) WITH THE OR- DER OF POLARITY CORRESPONDING TO 25 SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLE (-/ + IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE). NO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND ONE CO- RONAL MASS EJECTION (5.11) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N28L023 N13L031 N02L033 N15L013 3.4% 10.11 1 A SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS WERE AT BACKGROUND LEVELS THIS PERIOD UNDER A NO- MINAL SOLAR WIND REGIME. 23.09/09 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE, BUT IN THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "+". THE NEXT PERIOD SECTOR BOUNDARY REMAINED UNSTABLE. ------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 NOVEMBER Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 071 070 069 070 070 070 071 èbcg á6.6 á6.7 á6.7 á6.7 A6.9 A6.9 á7.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 9.2E+7 7.2E+7 4.6E+7 4.1E+7 4.9E+7 4.1E+7 3.9å+7 GOES Ie>2 2389 3049 1222 1011 1124 2296 2934 pfu Ap 4 5 5 5 3 4 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 8 9 5 5 6 3 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 25.10/0845 UT AND 25.10-08.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD THE MOST PROBABLY IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov