Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on  11 - 17.11.2019,
                 Forecast on 18 - 25.11.2019,
            Carrington Rotation 2223 (16,44.10.2019)   
             Earth out of ecliptic (4.5 - 4.1) deg. 
            (S20 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT-
LESS VISIBLE DISK (248 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 75%). ESTIMATED,  
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 0 (Wn=0). 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TION AND TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTION (20.11) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
 
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/Ïp   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l × ÇÒÁÄ.  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R  G  Spacecraft
CH +  N30L319 N20L322 S02L299 N10L289 <5.4% 21.11   7  A  SDO, SOHO...
CH -  S05L197 S25L217 S40L192 S10L187  6.1% 27.11   1  -  SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 22.11/09 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE, 
BUT IN THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "-".  THE NEXT PERIOD SECTOR BOUNDARY 
REMAINED UNSTABLE.
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NOVEMBER 18     19     20     21     22     23     24   NOVEMBER
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   070    069    070    071    070    070    071 
èbcg   á7.4   á7.2   á7.2   á7.4   A7.8   A7.9   á8.1   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                                 
IMF     -/+     +      +      +     +/-     -      -    DSCOVR   
Å>2  7.7E+6 1.1E+7 1.3E+7 5.7E+6 1.3E+7 2.6E+7 5.4E+7   GOES
Ie>2    180    224    235    356    553    941   1919   pfu 
Ap       2      2      2      12     13     11     11   nô  
Dst                                                     nô KIOTO
Amsc     2      2      3      13     18      11    13   nô IZMIRAN 
---------------------------------------------------------------------            
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 
24.11/1542 UT AND 24.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 24.11 - 02.12.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES  REMAINS  UNSETTLED 
AND QUIET ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 21-22.11. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams 
=27, dur.=12 h) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATO-
RY IZMIRAN WAS OBSERVED ON 21 - 22.11.  ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN 
BOULDER DATA ON THE BORDER OF THE DAYS, ONLY 6 h. SUBSTORM OF INTEN-
SITY "G0" HAVE BEEN NOTED.  22.11 IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY ON 
THE DATA OF IZMIRAN, THE 9 h. SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY "G0" WAS MARKED. 
ON THE DATA OF BOULDER CENTER THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETT-
LED AT THE DAY.

NEXT WEEK AFTER 27.11, THE EARTH WILL PASS A HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SO-
LAR WIND FROM THE NEW SOUTH CORONAL HOLE. THE PROBABILITY OF A "ACTI-
VE" GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT LEAST 60% BUT CH PARAMETERS DO NOT PRO-
VIDED THE BASIS FOR THE PREDICTION OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM. ON OTHER 
DAYS, THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND WEAKLY GROUNDED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov