DEAR USERS, HAPPY NEW YEAR 2020 (LEAP) YEAR !!! GOOD LUCK, HEALTH AND PERFORMANCE OF ALL OF YOUR TESTAMENTS. THIS NEW YEAR SUN WILL TAKE MINIMUM OF ACTIVITY AND THE NEW 25 SOLAR CYCLE OF THE MIDDLE QUANTITY WILL BEGIN. Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 23 - 29.12.2019, Forecast on 30.12.2019 - 05.01.2020, Carrington Rotation 2225, 2226 (10,05.12.2019; 06,38.01.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (0.9 - 0.0) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW, BUT WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK WAS 23 AND 27 - 29.12 (279 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 77%). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 5+9/-5 (Wn = 8+16/-8). ON THE VISIBLE DISK TWO SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, BOTH HIGH-ALTITUDE, WITH THE ORDER OF MAGNETIC PO- LARITIES 25th CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- TIONS AND CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + N20L114 N15L132 S15L114 S08L110 3.1% 31.12 1 - SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 25.12/13 UT, THE SIGN OF SECTOR IMF IS EXPECTED UNSTABLE AND CHAN- GES FREQUENTLY, BUT IN THE MIDDLE IT REMAINS WITH THE "+". IN THE FOLLOW- ING WEEK THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR SIGN NOT CHANGED, BUT TO GIVE A FORE- CAST BY EARTH'S PASSAGE OF CONFIDENT SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT POSSIBLE (DE- EP PHASE OF MINIMUM!). ----------------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 DECEMBER Wus 000 024 023 011 000 000 000 F10.7 073 073 072 072 072 072 072 èbcg A<1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 GOES Sp 000 020 020 010 000 000 000 msh N IMF - ~ -/+ + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 9.0E+6 9.1E+6 1.3E+7 5.8E+6 5.0E+6 3.0E+6 5.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 463 242 462 310 pfu Ap 4 3 4 5 2 2 1 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 3 5 4 3 2 2 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINS QUIET ALL DAYS. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov