Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 06 - 12.01.2020, Forecast on 13 - 20.01.2020, Carrington Rotation 2226 (06,38.01.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (-1 - -1.4) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW, BUT WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK WAS 7-8 AND 11-12.01 (4 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE 2020 - 10%). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=4+4/-4 (Wn= 7+6/-7). ON THE VISIBLE DISK TWO SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP, HIGH-ALTITUDE, WITH THE ORDER OF MAGNTTIC POLARI- TIES 25th CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- TIONS AND TWO (6-7.01) CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 08.01 >1014 >2252 S42W16L310 3 12755 12.01 <0006 ? N50WW40L228 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH*+ S05L040 S15L057 S28L030 S12L010 5.5% 07.01 8 - SDO, SOHO... CH*+ N35L233 N15L242 N25L239 N25L218 2.0% 14.01 1 - SDO, SOHO... * - low geoeffectivity, the substors with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 11.01/0830 UT, THE SIGN OF SECTOR IMF IS EXPECTED UNSTABLE AND CHAN- GES FREQUENTLY, BUT IN THE MIDDLE IT REMAINS WITH THE "+". IN THE FOLLOW- ING WEEK THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR SIGN NOT CHANGED, BUT NEXT SECTOR BOU- DARY BE EXPECTED 1.02. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 JANUARY Wus 011 000 000 014 011 000 000 F10.7 071 072 074 074 073 074 072 èbcg A<1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 A1.3 A1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 GOES Sp 010 000 000 030 010 000 000 msh N 1 IMF +/- - - - - -/+ + DSCOVR Å>2 4.4E+6 9.8E+5 4.3E+6 7.3E+6 1.3E+7 2.6E+7 2.2E+7 GOES Ie>2 273 617 1223 979 pfu Ap 9 5 6 12 7 6 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 10 7 9 12 8 7 5 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS 11. 01 HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETT- LED ALL DAYS EXEPT 9.01 WHEN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WAS PLANETARY MINOR SUBSTORM (G0) duration <3 h. HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL OBSERVED,BUT IS POSSIBLE ACTIVE CONDITION AT 14.01 FOLLOWED BY A CIR FROM POSITIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE HIGH-SPEED STREAM. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov