Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.01.2020, Forecast on 20 - 27.01.2020, Carrington Rotation 2226 (06,38.01.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (-1.4 - -1.7) deg. (S27 - N23 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (12 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE 2020-60%). ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 0 (Wn = 0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/ -10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS WITH CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (14.01) HAVE BEEN OBSER- VED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 14.01 0952 S02W12L229 ? óíå -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH*+ N35L233 N15L242 N25L239 N25L218 2.0% 14.01 1 - SDO, SOHO... * - low geoeffectivity, the substors with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 13.01/1330; 15/1520 AND 17/1125 UT THE IMF SIGN CHANGED AND WAS UNSTAB- LE. NEXT WEEK THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE SIGN WILL NOT CHANGE. FORECAST OF A SUSTAINABLE SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE CONSTANT VARIABILITY OF THE IMF SIGN IN THE CONDITIONS OF A DEEP MINIMUM CYCLE PHASE. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 JANUARY Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 072 072 071 072 070 071 072 èbcg A<1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 A1.3 A1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF +/- - -/+ + +/- - - DSCOVR Å>2 3.5E+7 2.2E+7 1.8E+7 5.7E+6 4.9E+6 5.2E+6 4.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 1362 874 581 309 309 218 179 pfu Ap 3 2 3 5 3 4 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 6 7 8 6 5 4 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS 13. 01 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ONLY. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETT- LED. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov