------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2020 HAS MADE Wdec. = 3.8 6.4(n) THAT GIVES FOR 126 MONTH (2019, JULY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*july = 2.1 3.5 - new system W*june = 2.2 3.7 - new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax =82; (116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - Already passed a minimum, which is not true.; NOAA - December 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. It should be noted that since mid-November 2019, all 4 sunspot groups (short-lived) were the sunspot groups of 25 cycles of SA. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>43 on October 2019) can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for JANUARY 2020 (69 observatories) : 1.. 8 6.. 7 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 19í 31.. 12 2.. 13 7.. 4 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 14 3.. 14 8.. 3 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 12 4.. 12 9.. 14 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 12 29.. 12 5.. 14 10.. 3 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 12 30.. 12 Minimum : 0 on 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON JANUARY 2020, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, JULY F10.7jan. = 72.2 F*10.7july= 69.7 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JANUARY 2020, AND SMOOT- HES ON 2019, JULY Ap jan. = 5 Ap*july =6.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.01 - 02.02.2020, Forecast on 03 - 10.02.2020, Carrington Rotation 2226, 2227 (06,38.01 - 02,72.02.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.3 - -2.7) deg. (S27 - N23 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK 2.02 ONLY (17 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=6+2/-6 (Wn= 10+4/-10). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISC ONE SMALL, BUT ACTIVE FOR LATE PHASE OF MINIMUM, SUNSPOT GROUP OF CURRENT SO- LAR CYCLE. A SMALL, SUSTAINABLE, ACTIVE (FOR THE LATE STAGE OF THE MINI- MUM PHASE) SUNSPOT GROUP WITH THE POLARITY OF THE CURRENT SO- LAR CYCLE WAS OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN. 01.09 IT GONE FOR WESTERN LIMB. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. AFTER 2.02 THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC - SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVE- RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL - EIGHT SOLAR FLARE (CLASSES B AND A) AND THREE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (20, 22.01) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - S25L004 S45L029 P S37W15 >9.1 5.02 >3 - SDO, ACE... * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 01.02/08 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN WAS "+" AND UNSTABLE. NEXT WEEK THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE SIGN WILL NOT CHANGE. FORECAST OF A SUSTAINABLE SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE CONSTANT VARIABILITY OF THE IMF SECTOR SIGN IN THE CONDITIONS OF A DEEP MINIMUM CYCLE PHASE. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 FEBRUARY Wus 012 011 011 011 011 011 000 F10.7 073 074 074 074 074 073 072 èbcg A1.0 A1.3 A1.1 A1.2 A1.4 A1.1 2 4.3E+6 4.1å+6 3.9E+6 3.7E+6 1.1E+7 1.5E+7 9.2E+6 GOES Ie>2 301 151 175 141 334 403 361 pfu Ap 3 5 9 12 8 5 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 9 12 13 9 11 12 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETT- LED. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov