Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 03 - 08.02.2020, Forecast on 09 - 17.02.2020, Carrington Rotation 2227 (02,72.02.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.8 - -3.1) deg. (S29 - N21 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (23 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0(Wn=0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL - THREE SOLAR FLARE (CLASSES B AND A) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - S25L004 S45L029 P S37W15 >9.1 6.02 >3 - SDO, ACE... * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 05.02/08 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN WAS "-" AND UNSTABLE. NEXT WEEK THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE SIGN WILL NOT CHANGE. FORECAST OF A SUSTAINABLE SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE CONSTANT VARIABILITY OF THE IMF SECTOR SIGN IN THE CONDITIONS OF A DEEP MINIMUM CYCLE PHASE. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 03 04 05 06 07 08 FEBRUARY Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 072 070 071 071 071 072 èbcg 2 1.1E+7 1.4å+7 7.5E+6 4.6E+6 3.2E+7 6.9E+7 GOES Ie>2 315 654 269 248 829 2023 pfu Ap 5 6 5 15 15 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 7 6 21 12 5 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AT 08.02/1335 UT AND OBSERVED 8.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 09.02 ONLY. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETT- LED ALL DAYS EXCEPT 6.02, WHEN THE EARTH ENTERED TO HSS CH OF SOUTH SOLAR HEMISPHERE. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AT THE END OF THE DAY AN INTENSIVE (G2) 6 h. SUBSTORM WAS NOTED. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER DATA IN THE BULDER IT WAS 3 h. SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY (G1). NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov