Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 09 - 16.02.2020, Forecast on 17 - 24.02.2020, Carrington Rotation 2227 (02,72.02.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.7 - -4.1) deg. (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT- LESS VISIBLE DISK (31 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0(Wn=0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL - ONE SOLAR FLARE (CLASS A7.9), 2 SOLAR FILAMENT ERUPTIONS (10, 13.09) AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTION 11.09) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FOR PERIOD. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 10.02 >2338 >1558 S40W90L164 16 13.02 0000 1400 S45W03L212 12 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 14.02/2230 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN WAS "+". NEXT WEEK THE BEHA- VIOR OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE SIGN WILL NOT CHANGE. FORECAST OF A SUS- TAINABLE SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE CONSTANT VARI- ABILITY OF THE IMF SECTOR SIGN IN THE CONDITIONS OF A DEEP MINIMUM CYCLE PHASE. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 FEBRUARY Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 071 070 071 072 071 071 071 071 èbcg 2 9.2E+7 1.2å+8 5.6E+7 2.9E+7 3.0E+7 3.4E+7 3.0E+7 1.0E+7 GOES Ie>2 2854 3795 1640 1136 781 1179 799 369 pfu Ap 7 5 6 4 3 3 5 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 4 4 5 2 2 5 4 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AT 08.02/1335 UT AND OBSERVED 8-12 AND 14.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETT- LED ALL DAYS. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov